消费回暖应有持续性

Group 1: Economic Recovery Indicators - Consumer confidence has shown signs of recovery, with October retail sales increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous value[12] - Retail sales of goods grew by 5% in October, a rise of 1.7 percentage points from September, while catering revenue increased by 3.2%[13] - Fixed asset investment growth remained flat year-on-year at 3.4%, with real estate investment declining by 10.3%[18] Group 2: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - Continuous implementation of stable growth policies is expected to support short-term consumption recovery, with a potential 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut anticipated in December[28][29] - Export resilience is projected to remain high due to potential trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., following Trump's re-election[28] - Industrial value-added growth in October was 5.3%, slightly down from the previous month, indicating a divergence between production and demand[22] Group 3: Investment Trends - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth has been rising, with year-on-year increases of 9.35% and 9.3% respectively, countering the decline in real estate investment[18] - The real estate market is experiencing a temporary sales recovery, but high inventory levels continue to pose challenges for new construction[20]