2024年10月经济数据点评：工业生产稳定，服务业加速扩张

Group 1: Economic Growth and Service Sector - In October, the service production index increased year-on-year growth from 5.1% to 6.3%, marking two consecutive months of recovery[1] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose from 54.6% to 56.2%, indicating significant optimism[1] - If the service sector maintains a growth rate of around 6% in Q4, the annual economic growth could reach approximately 5%[1][13] Group 2: Industrial Production and Investment - In October, industrial production year-on-year growth slightly decreased from 5.4% in September to 5.3%, while the seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth fell from 0.59% to 0.41%[2] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth remained at 3.4%, indicating a slow recovery and low levels of investment confidence[2][29] - Infrastructure investment growth rate fell from 17.5% to 10%, while private investment showed a decline from -0.2% to -0.3%[29][30] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in October, with the cumulative year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area improving by 1.3 percentage points to -15.8%[3][37] - New housing starts saw a year-on-year decline of 22.6%, slightly worsening from September's 22.2%[40] - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities showed a slight recovery, with prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month in October[40] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Retail Sales - Social retail sales in October grew by 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 3.9% and increasing by 0.9 percentage points from September[3][51] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy positively impacted household appliance sales, which rose by 7.8% year-on-year, a 3.4 percentage point increase from September[51][55] - Online retail sales also saw a slight recovery, with physical goods online retail growing by 8.3% year-on-year in October[55]