2024年1-10月统计局房地产数据点评：政策组合拳下销售量价边际有所改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [9]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is still in an adjustment phase in 2024, with sales volume and prices continuing to decline, but the downward pressure is gradually easing. The policy goal of "stabilizing and stopping the decline" from the September Politburo meeting is more positive, and the implementation of a series of policies has led to a marginal recovery in sales volume and prices in October. The key to future incremental policies and the sustainability of market improvement remains crucial. A significant reversal of the industry trend will require more time and extraordinary policies, but the most challenging period may be passing [5][8]. Summary by Sections - Sales Performance: From January to October 2024, the national sales volume and area of commercial housing decreased by 20.9% and 15.8% year-on-year, respectively. The decline in sales volume and area in October narrowed to 1.4% and 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement compared to historical averages [5][6]. - Construction Activity: New construction area from January to October 2024 decreased by 22.6% year-on-year, with a more pronounced decline of 26.7% in October. The completion area also saw a year-on-year decline of 23.9% during the same period, reflecting a peak in the natural completion cycle [6][7]. - Funding and Investment: The funds available to real estate companies decreased by 19.2% year-on-year from January to October 2024, with a 10.8% decline in October. Real estate development investment also fell by 10.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on funding and investment performance [7][8]. - 2025 Outlook: The real estate industry is expected to remain in an adjustment phase in 2024, with sales and investment projected to decline in single digits, while construction is likely to continue with double-digit declines. The elasticity of completions will depend on the effectiveness of policies to ensure project delivery [8]. - Investment Recommendations: It is advised to focus on supply-side optimization targets with core assets and stable cash flow from leading state-owned enterprises in the property sector. The marginal recovery in sales volume and prices in October suggests potential opportunities despite ongoing challenges [8][9].