钢铁行业周报：淡季效应深化，如何看待后续的钢价？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is maintained at Neutral [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel price is entering an adjustment period due to the deepening off-season effect, with a weakening of both seasonal and non-seasonal demand factors. It is expected that December may bring a new peak in policy support, which could drive macroeconomic expectations and support steel demand [5][6]. - The report maintains a judgment that steel prices in December will be "easy to rise but difficult to fall," supported by low inventory and moderate production levels, which make significant price declines unlikely. The price of rebar at 3300 CNY/ton is seen as a strong support level [5][6]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The report notes that the steel price rebounded quickly at the end of September due to favorable policies but has since entered a downward adjustment phase as the off-season effect deepens. The apparent consumption of steel has decreased by 0.07% week-on-week and 6.44% year-on-year [5][6]. - The report highlights that over half of the traders have a willingness to stock up for winter, but current prices are still above their psychological price levels. Traders believe that if prices drop below 3300 CNY/ton, they will be more inclined to increase their winter stock [5][6]. Section 2: Production and Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in production, with daily iron output rising to 2.3594 million tons, while overall steel production has decreased by 0.01% week-on-week and 4.63% year-on-year. The profitability of steel mills has been under pressure, with a reported profit rate of 57.58%, down by 2.16 percentage points [5][6]. - The report also mentions that the total inventory of steel has continued to decrease, with a week-on-week decline of 1.30% [5][6]. Section 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that December will see a new round of policy peaks, which may further release macroeconomic benefits. The improvement in automobile and home appliance production, along with year-end rush demand, is expected to support the resilience of manufacturing steel demand [5][6]. - The report concludes that the combination of expected recovery and solid fundamentals will drive price increases, while low inventory and moderate production levels will prevent significant price drops [5][6].