Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the energy metals sector, particularly for aluminum and copper [5]. Core Insights - The cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum starting December 1 is not expected to alter the mid-term reversal trend for these metals. The policy affects 566,000 tons of copper and 5.17 million tons of aluminum, representing 3.6% and 13.2% of domestic supply, respectively. While it may increase friction costs in import-export processes, it is unlikely to significantly suppress global demand [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on strategic investment opportunities in the energy metals sector, particularly lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths, as they are expected to recover from recent price corrections [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.52%, with the metals and mining sector declining by 5.89%, ranking 28th out of 32 sectors [14][16]. - All sub-sectors within the non-ferrous metals category experienced declines, with basic non-ferrous metals down 6.52% and energy metals down 3.00% [14][16]. Price Movements - LME three-month copper prices decreased by 4.9% to $8,971 per ton, while aluminum prices increased by 1.1% to $2,656.5 per ton. SHFE copper and aluminum also saw declines of 4.2% [23][25]. - The report notes a significant drop in SHFE three-month tin prices, which fell by 6.6% to 243,530 yuan per ton, and LME tin prices dropped by 10.2% [25]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper and aluminum inventories decreased, with SHFE copper inventory down 6.6% and LME aluminum inventory down 1.8% [34]. - The report highlights that the cancellation of export tax rebates will primarily impact aluminum, which is currently a net exporter, while copper is a net importer [5]. Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the energy metals sector, including lithium (e.g., Salt Lake Co., Zhongjin Lingnan), cobalt (e.g., Huayou Cobalt), and rare earths (e.g., China Rare Earth) [5].
金属、非金属与采矿行业:关注能源金属板块回调机会,铝铜维持推荐
Changjiang Securities·2024-11-18 07:21