LENOVO GROUP(00992) 开源证券·2024-11-18 07:27Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992 HK) with a focus on the potential for FY2026 profit growth driven by external factors such as tariff policies and capacity relocation plans [2][6] - FY2025Q2 performance met expectations with revenue of $17 85 billion up 24% YoY driven by growth in PC smartphone and tablet segments [7] - AI PC penetration is boosting ASP in the PC business with Lenovo's PC shipments growing 3 0% YoY in 2024Q3 outperforming the market which declined 2 4% [7] - ISG business revenue grew 65% YoY with AI servers contributing to a moderate sequential increase while SSG business grew 13% YoY [7] - FY2025Q2 net profit was $359 million with IDG business operating margin stable at 7 33% and ISG business narrowing its operating loss margin to -1 08% [7] - FY2025 full year profit is expected to be supported by promotional seasons and improved customer acquisition in ISG business [8] - FY2025Q3-Q4 AI server business is anticipated to see faster order-to-revenue conversion due to leadership changes and market dynamics [8] Financial Projections - FY2025 revenue is projected at $67 749 million up 19 1% YoY with net profit expected to be $1 271 million up 25 8% YoY [8] - FY2026 revenue is forecasted at $73 642 million up 8 7% YoY with net profit of $1 462 million up 15 0% YoY [8] - FY2027 revenue is estimated at $80 285 million up 9 0% YoY with net profit of $1 723 million up 17 9% YoY [8] - FY2025-2027 diluted EPS is projected at $0 085 $0 098 and $0 116 respectively translating to HK$0 66 HK$0 76 and HK$0 90 [6] - Current stock price of HK$9 17 implies FY2025-2027 PE multiples of 13 8x 12 0x and 10 2x [6] Business Performance - PC business saw volume and price increases with AI PC penetration driving ASP growth [7] - ISG business experienced significant revenue growth but remains in a loss-making phase with a slight improvement in operating loss margin [7] - SSG business showed steady growth with a 13% YoY increase in revenue [7] - Americas accounted for 33% of FY2025Q2 revenue with potential tariff risks under the Trump administration prompting accelerated global factory and supply chain adjustments [8]