全球大类资产观察：特朗普冲击与“特朗普交易”

Group 1: Stock Market - The report indicates a tactical exit from the "Trump trade" while retaining fundamental trading strategies, suggesting that the overall resilience of the US economy supports sustainable earnings for US stocks [20][24]. - The US stock market is expected to trend upwards, driven by sustainable earnings, while Japanese stocks may experience downward adjustments due to potential BOJ interest rate hikes and economic uncertainties [9][33]. - European stocks are projected to decline as they face the impact of tariffs without any visible government support in response to the trade policies [41][42]. Group 2: Bond Market - The report highlights an upward risk for US Treasury yields due to wider inflation swaps, higher term premiums, and increased neutral rates, driven by expansive fiscal policies [60][61]. - Japanese bond yields are also expected to rise as inflation expectations increase, with the BOJ's potential interest rate hikes adding pressure [66]. Group 3: Commodity Market - Oil prices are anticipated to remain low due to weak demand and oversupply, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East being a key factor to monitor [75]. - Gold is under short-term pressure for a pullback as uncertainties surrounding the US elections diminish, and expectations of rising real yields impact its performance [80][81]. - Copper prices face downward risks due to slow recovery in Chinese demand and a strong dollar, compounded by global economic slowdown indicators [85]. Group 4: Currency Market - The US dollar is expected to maintain strength, influenced by market pricing of Trump's policy impacts, while the Japanese yen faces depreciation pressure due to widening interest rate differentials [9][41]. - The euro is projected to decline further as US tariffs suppress European exports and economic growth expectations decrease [9][41].