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建材行业策略周报:地产回暖迹象显著,产业链或改善在即
CAITONG SECURITIES·2024-11-18 08:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [3]. Core Insights - Significant signs of recovery in the real estate market are observed, with a series of tax policies introduced to stabilize the sector, potentially boosting demand for construction materials [6][16][19]. - The cement prices are expected to stabilize and may experience slight upward fluctuations, while the glass market shows steady trading with slight inventory reductions [7][35][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the building materials sector, particularly in the context of recent policy changes aimed at stimulating the real estate market [6][19]. Summary by Sections Consumer Building Materials - The introduction of real estate tax policies is expected to enhance buyer confidence, particularly in first-time home purchases, with reduced transaction tax rates for properties under 140 square meters [6][16][17]. - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization in October, with a reported 7.8 billion square meters of new residential sales, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year decline, but a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [18]. - The report suggests focusing on consumer building materials companies such as Beixin Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Tubao for long-term investments, while also considering companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Sankeshu for short-term rebounds [6][19]. Cyclical Materials - Cement prices are currently stable, with a slight decrease in national cement shipment rates by approximately 1.5 percentage points. Some regions are initiating new price increases of 30-50 yuan per ton [7][38]. - The report indicates that the glass market is experiencing stable prices, with slight fluctuations based on regional demand and supply dynamics [39]. - The report highlights the potential for increased profitability for leading cement companies due to high dividend yields and low valuations, with companies like Conch Cement showing a price-to-book ratio below 0.70 [35][38]. New Materials - The report notes that the price of fiberglass is under pressure, particularly for coarse yarn, while fine yarn prices remain stable. The market for carbon fiber is also experiencing low transaction volumes [8][45]. - The report indicates that the electronic yarn market is stable, with expectations of increased supply, although current inventory levels may limit price adjustments [49].