2024年10月金融数据点评：社融低于预期，M1增速回升

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2024, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.40 trillion yuan, which is 448.3 billion yuan less than the previous year[3] - New RMB loans added 500 billion yuan, down 238.4 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - M1 growth rate improved to -6.1% from -7.4% in the previous month, while M2 growth rate increased to 7.5% from 6.8%[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Structure - RMB loans increased by 298.8 billion yuan in October, a decrease of 184.9 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak domestic demand[5] - Foreign currency loans decreased by 71 billion yuan, marking a continuous decline for seven months, with a year-on-year reduction of 86.2 billion yuan[5] - Trust loans added 17.2 billion yuan, down 22.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate bonds saw an addition of 101.5 billion yuan, down 16.3 billion yuan year-on-year[5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - M1 growth recovery is attributed to increased fiscal spending and improved real estate sales, leading to a shift of household deposits to corporate demand deposits[7] - M2 growth rebound is supported by accelerated fiscal spending and a return of funds from the bond market and wealth management products to deposits[7] - The approval of an additional 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits may boost government bond financing and social financing growth in the coming years[5]