2024年10月经济数据点评：政策助力，经济向好

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial added value grew by 5.3% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in September[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 423,222 million yuan from January to October, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[12] - Social retail sales totaled 45,396 million yuan in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[12] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment has seen its growth rate accelerate for the first time since April, supported by the issuance of long-term government bonds and special local government bonds[22] - Manufacturing investment has shown a steady recovery, contributing to the overall fixed asset investment growth[22] - Real estate investment declined by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, with a slight increase in the sales area decline[25] Consumption Insights - Urban retail sales grew by 4.7% year-on-year, while rural retail sales increased by 4.9%, indicating a stronger urban consumption recovery[29] - The implementation of "two new" policies and factors like the National Day holiday and e-commerce promotions have significantly boosted consumption in October[33] Policy Impact - Recent policies have strengthened counter-cyclical adjustments, promoting growth and stabilizing the real estate market[38] - The combination of existing and new policies is expected to support sustained growth in infrastructure investment and improve real estate investment, reducing the drag on fixed asset investment[38] Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in the international financial landscape, and unexpected shifts in China-US policies[39]