钢铁/有色行业金属周期品高频数据周报：出口退税取消政策对中长期铝材出口量影响或有限

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products may have limited short-term impact on export volumes, with a gradual recovery expected in the medium to long term [1] - The liquidity environment shows a negative growth rate difference between M1 and M2 of -13.6 percentage points, indicating potential challenges in financing for small and medium enterprises [1][12] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing significant declines, with new construction area down 22.60% year-on-year from January to October 2024 [1][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity Indicators - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October 2024 was -13.6 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [1][12] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2024 was 46.26, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.39% [1][12] Price Movements - Weekly price changes included rebar down 3.12%, cement price index down 0.13%, and iron ore down 4.46% [1] - The average profit margin for rebar was reported at 225 yuan per ton, with a decrease of 0.8% week-on-week [5] Construction and Real Estate - From January to October 2024, the cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area was 22.60%, while the cumulative decline in completed area was 23.90% [1][15] - The real estate sector's new construction area and sales area both showed significant declines, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [1][15] Export Chain - In October, China's PMI new export orders decreased by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting a challenging export environment [1] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping was reported at 1438.97 points, with a week-on-week increase of 3.66% [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued and stable profit-generating companies in the metal sector, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes [1]