TGOOD(300001) 东方证券·2024-11-18 10:09Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating with a target price of 30.0 yuan, based on a 2025 P/E ratio of 30x [2] Core Views - The public charging market has vast potential, with Teld (the company) maintaining a leading position. Public charging demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% from 2023 to 2030, reaching 1702 billion kWh/year by 2030. Teld operates 595,000 public charging terminals as of June 2024, with a 26% market share in public charging terminals and 24% in charging volume [1] - Teld has built five charging networks (public, bus, logistics, residential, and industrial parks), leveraging massive user and data resources. The company is exploring value-added services like SaaS platforms, ecosystem partnerships, and energy services. With the maturation of virtual power plants and V2G technology, Teld is expected to further tap into the flexible regulation capabilities of EVs for grid interaction, expanding its profit potential [1] - The company's outdoor power equipment business is poised for steady growth, benefiting from domestic grid investment and overseas infrastructure development. Teld's products are used in over 50 countries, with its prefabricated substation solutions addressing overseas customers' project timelines [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 16.39 billion yuan in 2024E to 22.53 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 17% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 794 million yuan in 2024E to 1.35 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 30% [4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.75 yuan in 2024E to 1.28 yuan in 2026E [4] Charging Business - Teld is the leader in China's public charging market, operating 595,000 public charging terminals (including 356,000 DC terminals) as of June 2024, with a 26% market share. The company's charging volume reached 5.8 billion kWh in H1 2024, capturing 24% of the market [1] - The company has established five charging networks (public, bus, logistics, residential, and industrial parks), leveraging massive user and data resources. It is exploring value-added services like SaaS platforms, ecosystem partnerships, and energy services [1] - Teld's charging business achieved profitability for the first time in 2023, with a net profit of 170 million yuan. Revenue from the charging business reached 4.6 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 42% of total revenue in H1 2024 [79] Power Equipment Business - Teld's power equipment business focuses on outdoor prefabricated substations and integrated services. The company has a leading market position in China's railway and power sectors, with products exported to over 50 countries [1] - Revenue from the power equipment business grew 13.37% YoY to 3.67 billion yuan in H1 2024, with net profit increasing 44.64% YoY to 213 million yuan [106] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major power generation groups, achieving significant market share in prefabricated substations and new energy transformers [108] Industry Trends - China's public charging demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% from 2023 to 2030, reaching 1702 billion kWh/year by 2030 [1] - The charging infrastructure market is highly concentrated, with the top 3 operators (Teld, Star Charge, and Yunkuaichong) accounting for 53.5% of the market as of September 2024 [49] - Global grid investment is expected to reach $435 billion in 2024, driven by energy transition and infrastructure upgrades in both developed and developing countries [95]