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家得宝：2024年三季度业绩点评：飓风带来一定程度需求提振，业绩和经营指标因高息环境继续承压
HDHome Depot(HD) 东吴证券国际·2024-11-18 10:10

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Home Depot (HD.N) is maintained at "Neutral" [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Home Depot's Q3 2024 revenue increased by 6.6% year-over-year to 40.2billion,althoughcomparablesalesdeclinedby1.340.2 billion, although comparable sales declined by 1.3% [2]. - The company has adjusted its 2024 full-year revenue growth guidance to approximately 4%, considering a comparable sales decline of 2.5% [2]. - The report indicates that the long-term fundamentals supporting home improvement demand remain strong, despite short-term pressures from high interest rates and economic uncertainty [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for Home Depot are as follows: 2023A at 157.403 billion, 2024E at 163.699billion,2025Eat163.699 billion, 2025E at 167.759 billion, and 2026E at 175.845billion,withyear−over−yeargrowthratesof4.1175.845 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 4.1%, 4.0%, 2.5%, and 4.8% respectively [1]. - Net income estimates are: 2023A at 17.105 billion, 2024E at 16.785billion,2025Eat16.785 billion, 2025E at 17.515 billion, and 2026E at 18.499billion,withgrowthratesof4.118.499 billion, with growth rates of 4.1%, -1.9%, 4.3%, and 5.6% respectively [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 17.22, 16.90,16.90, 17.63, and 18.62for2023A,2024E,2025E,and2026Erespectively,withcorrespondingP/Eratiosof23.56,24.01,23.01,and21.79[1][2].OperationalData−KeyoperationalmetricsforQ32024showthatcustomertransactionstotaled399million,aslightdecreaseof0.218.62 for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23.56, 24.01, 23.01, and 21.79 [1][2]. Operational Data - Key operational metrics for Q3 2024 show that customer transactions totaled 399 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-over-year, while the average transaction value was 88.65, down 1.3% from the previous year [2]. - The sales per square foot metric was recorded at $582.97, reflecting a 2.1% decline compared to the same period last year [2]. Market Indicators - The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for October 2024 was reported at 43, indicating a slight increase but still below the breakeven point [2]. - The latest building permit data for September 2024 showed a total of 113.7 thousand permits, down 5.9% year-over-year, which is closely correlated with Home Depot's revenue [2]. Performance Outlook - The report anticipates that Home Depot will benefit from the recent hurricane-related demand, which is expected to provide a short-term boost to sales [2]. - The company plans to open approximately 12 new stores in 2024, maintaining its previous guidance, which represents a 0.5% increase from the 2,335 stores at the end of 2023 [2].