农业行业周报：猪价继续下行，短期关注需求变化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Viewpoints - The agriculture sector experienced a decline of 6.1% last week, ranking 26th among the Shenwan primary industries. All sub-industries saw a decrease, with aquaculture down 14.9% and seed production down 7.8% [6][7]. - Short-term focus should be on demand changes and disease impacts as pig prices continue to decline, with an average price of 16.5 CNY/kg, down 2.7% week-on-week [7][24]. - The report suggests that with the arrival of winter and the peak season for cured meat, pig prices may rebound in the short term. Long-term, the industry may enter a new development phase, benefiting companies with cost advantages [7][12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The agriculture sector's performance last week was a decline of 6.1%, with all sub-industries experiencing losses. The animal health sector fell by 3.2%, while aquaculture saw a significant drop of 14.9% [6][8]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs was 16.5 CNY/kg, down 2.7% from the previous week. The price of 15kg piglets was 514 CNY/head, down 3.0% [7][24]. - The report indicates that the pig farming industry may have reached a new phase of development, with companies that have cost advantages likely to benefit more [7][12]. Aquaculture - Some water product prices have increased, with the average price of grass carp at 5.7 CNY/jin, down 0.9% week-on-week, but up 3% year-on-year. The report highlights the potential stabilization of water product prices as the peak fishing season passes [8][12]. Poultry - The average price of white feather broiler chicks was 4.3 CNY/chick, up 1.3% week-on-week, while the average price of broilers remained stable at 3.8 CNY/chick. The report suggests that the poultry industry may see improved profitability as feed costs decrease [9][12]. Seed Industry - The report notes the ongoing commercialization of genetically modified crops, with significant developments expected in 2024. Companies with technological advantages are likely to benefit from these advancements [9][12]. Pet Food - The pet food sector is performing well, with stable overseas demand and growth in domestic sales. Companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are highlighted for their rapid brand development [10][12]. Rubber Industry - The rubber supply-demand balance is improving, with a decrease in production due to adverse weather conditions. The report anticipates a continued rise in rubber prices, suggesting a focus on Hainan rubber [12].