航空行业策略：24Q3航空盈利再超预期，盈利中枢上升可期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese aviation industry has a strong long-term logic, with expectations for an upward shift in profit margins as supply and demand recover. The current market expectations are still low, suggesting a good opportunity for reverse positioning during the off-season [3][9] - The industry has shown continuous profitability in Q3 for two consecutive years, exceeding 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in recovery [3][39] - The report suggests that major airlines have performed better than expected, with significant cost improvements and a recovery in fleet turnover and passenger load factors anticipated for 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to exceed profit expectations as supply and demand recover, with a focus on market-driven pricing and a slowdown in fleet growth [3][9] - The report recommends increasing holdings in major airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [3][9] Section 2: Q3 Performance - The estimated profit for the entire industry in Q3 2024 is expected to decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, while A-share airlines' net profit is projected to decrease by 14%, still surpassing Q3 2019 figures [3][39] - Revenue for Q3 2024 is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand in the aviation sector [3][48] Section 3: Cost Analysis - Fuel costs have slightly decreased in Q3, with expectations for further improvement in Q4. Non-fuel costs are also expected to improve due to fleet turnover and the recovery of international flights [3][40] Section 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the recovery trend in supply and demand for the aviation industry will continue into the next year, with international flights increasing to absorb domestic capacity [3][27] - The upcoming winter season is expected to see domestic airlines increase international flights, further alleviating domestic overcapacity [3][27] Section 5: Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of reverse positioning during the off-season, as current market expectations and valuations are relatively low. It suggests that the decline in oil prices could enhance profit margins during peak seasons [3][35]