BABA-阿里巴巴-W：阿里巴巴FY25Q2业绩点评：淘天货币化率企稳，AI布局亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Alibaba-W (9988 HK) with a target price of 121 HKD for FY2025 [2] Core Views - Alibaba's Take Rate has stabilized due to service fees and full-site promotion, with continued investments in supply chain and user experience improvement [1][2] - Cloud Intelligence segment's profitability significantly exceeded expectations, with multiple businesses showing substantial reductions in losses [1][2] - The company's share repurchase program is progressing steadily, with a 24% YoY increase in repurchase amount to $4.1 billion in the quarter [2] Financial Performance - Alibaba's FY2025E-FY2027E revenue is forecasted at 10218/11234/12049 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit of 1441/1825/1905 billion RMB [2] - Taobao and Tmall Group's revenue reached 990 billion RMB in CY24Q3, a 1% YoY increase, with customer management revenue up 2% to 704 billion RMB [2] - Cloud Intelligence revenue grew 7% YoY to 296 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA surging 89% to 26.6 billion RMB [2] Business Segment Analysis Taobao and Tmall Group - Revenue increased 1% YoY to 990 billion RMB in CY24Q3, driven by double-digit order growth and 88VIP membership reaching 46 million [2] - Take Rate remained stable YoY, with a 0.6% service fee introduced in September expected to contribute fully in CY24Q4 [2] Cloud Intelligence Group - AI-related revenue has maintained triple-digit growth for five consecutive quarters [2] - The group reduced Tongyi Qianwen API prices while advancing scale effects and technological advantages [2] International Commerce - Revenue grew 29% YoY, primarily driven by strong growth in Choice [2] - Adjusted EBITA improved significantly to -29 billion RMB, better than the expected -36 billion RMB [2] Local Services and Digital Media - Local services revenue increased 14% YoY to 177 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA margin improving by 14 percentage points to -2% [21] - Digital media and entertainment revenue decreased 1% YoY to 57 billion RMB, with adjusted EBITA margin improving by 0.4 percentage points to -3.1% [25] Share Repurchase - The company repurchased$ 4.1 billion worth of shares in the quarter, a $2.4 billion YoY increase [2] - FY2025 cumulative net share reduction reached 4.4%, with$ 22 billion remaining in the repurchase program [2] Valuation - The sum-of-the-parts valuation for FY25E stands at 2696 billion RMB, with a 20% holding discount applied [28] - The target price for US-listed BABA is $125, while the HK-listed 9988 HK target is 121 HKD [28]