有色金属行业周报：美联储降息预期波动叠加出口限制，主要金属价格震荡

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metal sector [4]. Core Views - The recent fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, combined with export restrictions, have led to volatility in major metal prices. The cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum in China may disrupt the stability of the metal supply chain [4][5]. - Short-term demand growth for industrial metals may not be significant due to recent economic data showing fluctuations, indicating that economic recovery may still require time [5][47]. - Long-term, industrial metal prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by global supply chain disruptions and domestic policy changes [48]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Review - From November 11 to November 15, 2024, the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index fell by 5.71%, with industrial metals down by 6.7% and precious metals down by 3.99% [20]. - The top five gainers in individual stocks were Xinbo Co. (+21%), Guocheng Mining (+11%), and Tibet Summit (+10%), while the top five losers included Shenzhen New Star (-23%) and Yingluohua (-19%) [22]. 2. Precious Metals - Following Trump's election, expectations for "re-inflation" in the U.S. have increased, potentially affecting the independence of the Federal Reserve's policies and introducing uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts, which may impact gold prices [35]. 3. Industrial Metals - Economic data for October showed a year-on-year increase of 5.3% in industrial value added, slightly below expectations. Fixed asset investment increased by 3.4% year-on-year [5][45]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper is expected to impact metal prices in the short term, while long-term price stability is anticipated [48]. - As of October 2024, China's electrolytic copper monthly production was 979,800 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [49]. 4. Key Listed Company Announcements - Shengda Resources announced plans to acquire the remaining 33% stake in Jinshan Mining for 613.8 million yuan, increasing its ownership to 100% [31]. - Xinke Materials signed an investment cooperation agreement for a high-speed copper connection project, involving a rental agreement for a factory and equipment financing [32].