LONGDA(002726) 国海证券·2024-11-18 14:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longda Foodstuff (002726) [1] Core Views - Longda Foodstuff's food segment shows steady growth with continuous business structure optimization [1] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue declined by 12.12% YoY to 2.97 billion yuan, but net profit surged 161.61% YoY to 15 million yuan [2] - The food segment accounted for over 20% of total revenue, with prepared food revenue reaching 1.509 billion yuan in the first three quarters [3] - The slaughtering business saw improved profitability through channel restructuring and high-margin product development [3] - The breeding business turned profitable in Q3 2024 due to rising pig prices and effective cost control [3] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 8.014 billion yuan, down 20.7% YoY, while net profit increased 111.26% YoY to 73 million yuan [2] - Q3 2024 prepared food revenue grew 34.61% QoQ to 536 million yuan, driven by seasonal demand and new customer acquisition [3] - The company's slaughtering volume reached 3.6008 million heads in Q1-Q3 2024, with breeding output at 247,600 heads [3] - The company's total market capitalization stood at 7.26275 billion yuan as of November 18, 2024 [3] Strategic Development - The company focuses on expanding its food business through product diversification and channel optimization [3] - The "consolidate existing and develop new" strategy for large B-end customers has shown effectiveness [3] - The company is strengthening its presence in online and new retail channels for C-end customers [3] - The Q4 2024 Spring Festival season is expected to boost annual performance [3] Industry Analysis - China's slaughtering and breeding industries are becoming more standardized under policy guidance [3] - The industry entered a de-capacity cycle in January 2023, leading to improved market conditions [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to reach 12.107 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 14.158 billion yuan by 2026 [6] - Net profit is expected to increase from 102 million yuan in 2024 to 248 million yuan in 2026 [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.09 yuan in 2024 to 0.23 yuan in 2026 [6] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 71.11 in 2024 to 29.33 in 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's current price is 6.73 yuan, with a 52-week range of 5.93-8.75 yuan [3] - ROE is projected to improve from 6% in 2024 to 12% in 2026 [6] - P/B ratio is expected to decline from 4.58 in 2024 to 3.57 in 2026 [6] - P/S ratio is forecasted to decrease from 0.60 in 2024 to 0.51 in 2026 [6]