Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Afghan economy experienced a significant contraction of 20.7 percent in 2021, with a continued decline in 2022, but civilian nighttime luminosity indicates a recovery, surpassing pre-2020/21 levels by 10.5 percent by 2023/24, despite official GDP data showing a one-quarter reduction compared to 2020 [2][8][36][71] Summary by Sections Introduction and Motivation - The Afghan economy faced severe shocks following the regime change in August 2021, with GDP contracting sharply and continuing to decline despite some international aid resumption [8][36] Economic Context - The economy has transitioned through distinct phases, with high growth from 2003 to 2012 driven by international aid, followed by sluggish growth until the Taliban takeover, and a significant contraction post-2021 [31][32][36] Data and Methods - The study utilizes nighttime light data as a proxy for economic activity, filtering out military installations to better reflect local economic dynamics [11][19][42] Results - Civilian nighttime lights provide a more accurate representation of economic activity than total luminosity, with a strong correlation to GDP, especially post-2021 [51][59] - The analysis shows that civilian luminosity has recovered significantly, indicating a local economic recovery, while total luminosity remains below pre-2020 levels [67][71][72]
Afghanistan’s New Economic Landscape
Shi Jie Yin Hang·2024-11-18 23:03