宏观周报：国内经济有所改善

Economic Overview - Domestic economy shows slight improvement with retail sales growth rising to 4.76% year-on-year in October, up 1.53 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Industrial value-added growth remains stable at 5.3% year-on-year in October, with cumulative growth steady at 5.8%[11] - Fixed asset investment maintains a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.4%, with real estate continuing to decline while manufacturing and infrastructure investment show recovery[18] Real Estate Market - First-tier cities' transaction area stabilizes at a five-year average level, while second-tier cities remain above historical lows[23] - The National Housing Prosperity Index has risen for six consecutive months, indicating signs of stabilization in the real estate market[18] - Second-hand housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities continue to decline, with inventory levels also decreasing, suggesting a shift towards price-based sales[23] Bond Market - The bond market experiences a narrowing of the yield spread between long and short-term bonds, with a forecasted trading range for the 10-year bond between 2.05% and 2.25%[29] - Upcoming supply shocks from bond replacements may lead to temporary increases in interest rates, but overall demand for bonds is expected to remain stable[29] U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. October CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 3.3%, aligning with market expectations[32] - The probability of a rate cut in December has increased from approximately 60% to 80%, reflecting heightened inflation expectations[32] - The potential for increased market volatility is anticipated due to the new administration's policies, which may impact inflation and interest rate strategies[36]