东吴证券：晨会纪要-20241119

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the shift in the Federal Reserve's focus from employment to inflation following the recent U.S. presidential election, with Trump's policies potentially raising long-term inflation expectations [1][26]. - It highlights that the market and the Federal Reserve are becoming more sensitive to CPI data, raising concerns about inflation potentially limiting the Fed's ability to adjust interest rates [1][26]. - The report suggests that if inflation does not slow down quickly enough, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, with historical precedents indicating a tendency to postpone such actions in response to inflation recovery [1][26]. Fixed Income - The issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace existing hidden debts is expected to have a limited impact on the bond market, with the central bank able to counteract this through measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts [2]. - The report identifies a new "left-side" opportunity in convertible bonds, suggesting that market sentiment may be sensitive in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential transition [2]. - It notes that the convertible bond market is entering a new opportunity phase, recommending a focus on bonds with strong redemption demands and visible recovery slopes [2]. Real Estate Industry - The report indicates a slight increase in second-hand housing transactions and a decrease in new housing transactions, with recent tax policy changes aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - It recommends several companies in real estate development and property management, including China Resources Land and Poly Developments, as well as real estate economics firms like Beike [6]. - The report emphasizes the impact of tax incentives on housing transactions, which are expected to support market recovery [6]. Pharmaceutical Industry - The report notes a decline in the pharmaceutical index year-to-date, with specific sectors like medical commercial and medical devices showing relatively smaller declines compared to raw materials and traditional pharmaceuticals [6]. - It highlights the introduction of DRG/DIP 2.0 policies as beneficial for innovative drugs and medical devices, suggesting a focus on innovative drug categories [6]. - The report also mentions the increasing relevance of AI in healthcare, with several recent policy announcements supporting its application in the medical field [6]. Construction and Decoration Industry - The report observes a rebound in infrastructure investment growth, driven by the issuance of special bonds, and recommends undervalued construction companies [6]. - It highlights the growth in the external contracting engineering business, with a significant increase in new contract amounts, suggesting a positive outlook for overseas engineering demand [6]. - The report also points out opportunities in energy-saving and carbon-reduction initiatives within the construction sector, recommending companies involved in prefabricated buildings and related technologies [6]. Automotive Industry - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive sector, with policies supporting demand and a significant expected increase in new energy vehicle sales [10]. - It highlights the expected growth in domestic demand for passenger vehicles and new energy vehicles, projecting a 30% increase in new energy vehicle demand in 2025 [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and the integration of smart technologies in the automotive sector [10]. Electric Power Equipment Industry - The report discusses the strong demand for energy storage in the U.S. and emerging markets, predicting significant growth in storage capacity [14]. - It notes that the global energy storage market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% from 2023 to 2025, with a focus on storage inverters and battery manufacturers [14]. - The report also highlights the anticipated recovery in demand for electric vehicles and the ongoing advancements in solid-state battery technology [14].