银行业2025年度投资策略：本固枝荣，扬帆再起航

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the banking sector in 2025 [2] Core Views - The banking sector is expected to achieve a new balance between volume and pricing in 2025, with slower growth in assets and liabilities, optimized structure, and weakened price constraints [2] - Credit growth in 2025 is expected to be slightly weaker than in 2024, with a projected new credit scale of 18-19 trillion yuan and a balance growth rate slowing to 7.0%-7.4% [2] - Deposit rates are expected to continue declining, posing challenges for small and medium-sized banks in growing high-quality liabilities [2] - The capital replenishment channels for high-quality banks are expected to become more streamlined, with reduced pressure on capital replenishment [2] - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to face downward pressure in 2025, but the rate of decline will narrow [2] - The stability of the balance sheet is considered more important than the flexibility of the income statement, with credit costs expected to remain low [2] Credit Environment - Credit growth in 2024 has slowed, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 8% in October, down from 11% in June 2023 [41] - The structure of new credit in 2024 is dominated by corporate loans, with retail loans showing marginal improvement [42] - Industrial and infrastructure-related medium and long-term loans remain the main focus of corporate lending, while green, inclusive, and agricultural loans are growing rapidly [50] - In 2025, credit growth is expected to be slightly weaker than in 2024, but social financing growth is expected to be better due to government bond issuance [56] Bank Liabilities - Deposit rates are expected to continue declining, with large banks' deposit rates systematically falling below 1.6% [64] - Small and medium-sized banks face challenges in growing high-quality liabilities due to deposit migration to asset management products and liquidity stratification [69] - The core constraint on asset expansion remains weak effective demand, rather than the scale of liabilities [75] Capital Constraints - The implementation of new capital regulations and the potential expansion of advanced methods are expected to help high-quality banks save capital in the medium to long term [78] - The issuance of special treasury bonds to supplement the capital of major banks is expected to ease capital replenishment pressure in 2025 [79] Net Interest Margin (NIM) - The NIM is expected to face downward pressure in 2025, with a static impact of 12-13bps on listed banks' NIM [85] - The decline in NIM is expected to narrow compared to 2024, with banks focusing on optimizing retail credit and cost management to stabilize income [85] Risk Reassessment - The acceleration of debt resolution is expected to stabilize bank asset quality, with local government implicit debt effectively resolved [100] - The main risk factors in 2025 are expected to be stable corporate assets, with a focus on retail asset risks [104] Investment Strategy - The banking sector is expected to benefit from stable performance and dividends, with a focus on high-dividend banks and those with high retail asset ratios [4] - Regional banks are expected to benefit from local economic development and debt resolution, with potential for improved fundamentals [4]