银行行业专题研究：2025年负债成本改善力度有望加大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to see an improvement in liability costs in 2025, with the first half of 2024 showing a return to a declining trend in liability costs, supporting a narrowing of interest margin declines [2][18]. - The report highlights that the average yield on interest-earning assets and loan yields decreased by 18bps and 27bps respectively, marking the highest half-year decline since 2020 [2][18]. - The report emphasizes that the decline in interest costs is primarily driven by a reduction in deposit costs, with the average deposit cost rate decreasing by 7bps to 1.87% [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Trends - The banking sector's liability costs have returned to a declining range, with the average cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreasing by 4bps to 2.06% in the first half of 2024 [18]. - The report notes that the decline in costs is supported by a significant reduction in long-term deposit rates, with three-year deposit rates expected to drop by over 100bps [2][18]. 2. Deposit Structure Changes - The trend towards increased term deposits has shown signs of easing, with the proportion of term deposits remaining high but the rate of increase slowing down [3][4]. - The report indicates that the narrowing of the interest rate spread between different deposit terms has prompted banks to actively manage the duration of deposits [4][7]. 3. Regulatory Impact on Interbank Liability Costs - The report anticipates a potential decline in interbank liability costs due to regulatory guidance aimed at managing interest rates for interbank deposits [8]. - It mentions that the average interbank liability cost increased by 9bps to 2.53% in the first half of 2024, but regulatory measures may help stabilize these costs moving forward [8]. 4. Interest Margin Outlook for 2025 - The report projects that some banks may stabilize their interest margins, benefiting from a combination of lower mortgage rates and improved deposit cost structures [9]. - It highlights that the weighted average interest rate on existing mortgages is expected to decrease to approximately 3.55%, which could positively impact banks with lower mortgage loan ratios [9].