CHALCO(601600) 国盛证券·2024-11-19 00:14Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Views - The company has established a comprehensive aluminum industry chain, enhancing its competitive advantage and resource utilization [1][22]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the transition to green energy and lower production costs, particularly through its operations in Yunnan [1][22]. - The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is becoming rigid, and improvements in demand structure are expected to drive aluminum prices higher [1][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the aluminum industry and has a complete industry chain from bauxite to aluminum products, with significant production capacities [1][22]. - As of the end of 2023, the company has an annual production capacity of 2.226 million tons of alumina and 7.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, making it a global leader [1][22]. - The company has achieved a 100% self-sufficiency rate in alumina and a 70% self-sufficiency rate in bauxite [1][22]. Section 2: Market Dynamics - The supply-side reforms and macroeconomic benefits are expected to support aluminum prices, with a shift towards marginal cost pricing [1][22]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to structural changes in downstream industries, particularly in construction and transportation [1][22]. Section 3: Green Development - The company is actively pursuing green development initiatives, leveraging its acquisition of Yunnan Aluminum to enhance its green energy capabilities [1][22]. - The company aims to increase its green electricity usage, which is currently at 22%, through new energy projects [1][22]. Section 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 12.3 billion, 15.4 billion, and 16.5 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 11.9, 9.4, and 8.8 times [2].