铜行业周报：铜价进入底部区间，国内铜社库连续四周下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices have entered a bottom range, with domestic copper social inventory declining for four consecutive weeks. As of November 15, 2024, SHFE copper price was 73,860 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week, while LME copper price was 8,971 USD/ton, down 4.9% week-on-week. The maximum decline in copper prices from November 5 to 15 was 9%, nearing previous lows [1][2]. - The report anticipates that macroeconomic factors will weaken, and the supply-demand fundamentals will support an upward trend in copper prices in Q4 2024 [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Price and Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 14.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory fell by 0.2%. As of November 15, 2024, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 1.113 million tons, up 2.7% week-on-week, marking a near three-year high [2][19]. - Global copper inventory across the three major exchanges totaled 500,000 tons as of November 8, 2024, the highest in nearly six years, down 3.1% week-on-week [2][19]. 2. Supply - The TC (treatment charge) price fell by 0.5 USD/pound, with the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreasing to 829 CNY/ton, down 148 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][51]. - In September 2024, China's copper concentrate production was 147,000 tons, up 1.6% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year [2][51]. 3. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 2 percentage points week-on-week, with the operating rate for copper pipe enterprises rising by 7 percentage points in October [3][82]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 89.37% as of November 14, 2024 [3][82]. 4. Futures Market - As of November 15, 2024, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 4.5%, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 11.9% [4][37]. - The report indicates that the reduction in active contract positions suggests a cautious outlook on short-term copper prices [4][37]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts that with tightening supply and improving demand in Q4 2024, copper prices are expected to rise. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4][5].