宏观大类日报：关注特朗普交易的持续性

Group 1: Market Analysis - The U.S. election results have led to a Trump administration with Republican control over both houses, which may increase inflation due to proposed tax cuts and tariffs[3] - The U.S. October CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, providing support for the Fed's current monetary policy[3] - Domestic policies in China include a debt limit of 6 trillion yuan for 2024-2026 and a special debt quota of 800 billion yuan annually for five years, significantly reducing hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028[3] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Precious metals are recommended for buying on dips, while other commodities are viewed neutrally[3] - The oil market faces increased supply pressure, while the oilseed sector shows strong performance due to tight supply conditions[5] - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates on aluminum and copper may raise inflation risks due to increased bilateral tax rates[5] Group 3: Economic Risks - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the energy sector, pose upward pressure on prices[6] - A potential global economic downturn could negatively impact risk assets[6] - The Fed's unexpected tightening could also lead to declines in risk assets[6]