财政数据点评（2024.10）：化债已经加速，置换快于投资

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In October, general public budget revenue reached 2.19 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, marking a 3.0 percentage point rise[2] - Tax revenue, particularly from value-added tax and consumption tax, significantly improved, contributing 3.8 and 2.4 percentage points to the revenue growth respectively[2] - General public budget expenditure rose by 10.4% year-on-year, an increase of 5.2 percentage points, continuing to outpace revenue growth for the second consecutive month[2] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 10.0%, with land transfer revenue dropping by 10.5%, although the decline rate improved by 8.3 percentage points[2] - Government fund budget expenditure surged by 47.9%, a 13.7 percentage point increase, reaching the highest level since April 2022[2] - The acceleration in expenditure is outpacing infrastructure investment, indicating a shift towards debt replacement strategies[2] Debt Management and Infrastructure Investment - By the end of October, 98% of new local government special bonds had been issued, highlighting a focus on resolving local government debt risks[2] - The newly approved 6 trillion in debt replacement is expected to be issued rapidly, with 2 trillion planned for November and December[2] - The net increase in infrastructure investment will depend on the quality of debt replacement and the ability to meet project profitability requirements[2] Economic Policy Outlook - The focus for 2025 will be on improving domestic demand through both consumption and investment, emphasizing sustainable debt and exchange rate management[2] - Risks include potential lower-than-expected fiscal spending, which could hinder the recovery of consumer spending[2]