BYD(002594) 海通证券·2024-11-19 01:54Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BYD (002594) [1] Core Views - BYD has successfully navigated the new energy vehicle (NEV) cycle, leveraging its full industry chain layout and technological innovations [3] - The company's monthly sales have consistently grown, reaching 483,000 units in October 2024, a 67% YoY increase [14] - BYD's DM 5.0 technology, launched in 2024, marks the beginning of a new vehicle cycle, further solidifying its competitive edge [3][21] Historical Performance - From 2020 to 2021, BYD benefited from the rising penetration rate of NEVs and the launch of its Blade Battery and DM-i hybrid technology [3] - In Q2 2022, BYD achieved revenue of 83.8 billion yuan, a 68% YoY increase, and net profit of 2.8 billion yuan, up 198% YoY [3] - By June 2023, monthly sales exceeded 250,000 units, and in October 2024, sales surpassed 500,000 units [3][14] Market Position - BYD holds a significant market share in the domestic NEV market, with a 24% share in the 5-10 million yuan price segment and 15% in the 10-15 million yuan segment as of September 2024 [26] - The company's market share in the 15-20 million yuan segment is 13%, slightly down from 14% in 2023 [26] Technological Advancements - BYD's DM 5.0 platform, launched in 2024, features significant upgrades in core components, achieving a fuel consumption of 2.9L/100km and a comprehensive range of 2100km [21] - The company's continuous "micro-innovations" have created a strong barrier to entry for competitors in the hybrid vehicle market [18] Overseas Expansion - BYD is expanding its global footprint with planned production capacities in Thailand (150,000 units/year), Brazil (150,000 units/year), and Hungary (110,000 units/year) [30][32][34] - In 2024, BYD ranked first globally in NEV sales with 2.61 million units, ahead of Tesla (1.29 million units) [34] Financial Projections - The report forecasts BYD's 2024 revenue at 765.1 billion yuan, with net profit of 38.2 billion yuan, and EPS of 13.13 yuan [38] - For 2025 and 2026, revenue is projected to reach 918.8 billion yuan and 1.1 trillion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 53.5 billion yuan and 72.6 billion yuan [38] - The company's 2024 PE ratio is estimated at 22x, with a target price range of 315.89-329.05 yuan [38] Competitive Landscape - BYD's models, such as the Qin L DM-i and Seal 06 DM-i, compete favorably with ICE vehicles from brands like Volkswagen and Geely in terms of price, fuel efficiency, and dimensions [19] - The company's market share in the 10-15 million yuan segment increased by 9 percentage points in 2024, driven by the launch of its Honor Edition models [26]