【宏观专题】宏观2025年度策略报告：解开三螺旋

Group 1: Macroeconomic Challenges - The current macroeconomic challenges can be summarized as "economic downturn, wealth shrinkage, and weak expectations," represented by the interwoven issues of prices, housing prices, and stock prices, termed the "three spirals" [1] - The main indicators of economic pressure include weak consumption, investment, PPI, housing prices, and stock prices, with the residents' sector under significant pressure [1] - The PPI has been in a downward trend, with a year-on-year decline of -2.9% as of October, reflecting low corporate expectations [1] Group 2: Policy Responses - The policy response is expected to focus on "systematic measures" to address the three spirals, including stabilizing housing prices, enhancing capital market stability, and implementing supply-side reforms [2] - The estimated need for inventory reduction in real estate is between 1.4 trillion to 4.3 trillion yuan, depending on the level of inventory reduction targeted [3] - The government’s broad deficit rate may need to be between 9.6% and 11.0% to support fiscal expansion [3] Group 3: Signals for Economic Recovery - Five key signals to track the effectiveness of policy implementation include the increase in fiscal budgetary funds, improvement in the growth rate of corporate and resident deposits, and a positive year-on-year change in housing prices and PPI [4] - A successful recovery would be indicated by a gradual improvement in M1 growth, which reflects the overall economic activity and demand [4] Group 4: Investment Scenarios - Two potential investment scenarios are outlined: one where the three spirals are resolved leading to economic recovery, and another where the resolution proves difficult, resulting in a focus on low-interest investments [5] - In the recovery scenario, the stock market is expected to transition from valuation recovery to profit recovery, with specific sectors like non-bank financials and technology being highlighted [5]