Hopewind(603063) Soochow Securities·2024-11-19 02:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to its comprehensive layout in wind, solar, and hydrogen storage [2][11] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, down 36.9% year-on-year [2][11] - The company has improved its profitability in the new energy control sector, with a gradual increase in the proportion of overseas business [3][16] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for the years 2022A to 2026E is projected as follows: 2809, 3752, 3625, 4376, and 5179 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.52%, 33.56%, -3.38%, 20.71%, and 18.35% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted to be 266.90, 502.25, 457.94, 563.87, and 671.55 for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -4.66%, 88.18%, -8.82%, 23.13%, and 19.10% [1] - The latest diluted EPS (in yuan/share) is expected to be 0.60, 1.13, 1.03, 1.27, and 1.52 for the years 2022A to 2026E [1] Business Segment Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2024, the new energy control business generated revenue of 1.802 billion yuan, down 13.41% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 34.34%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points [3][16] - Domestic revenue for the same period was 2.104 billion yuan, down 14.97% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 172 million yuan, up 69.80% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 51.08% [3][16] Hydrogen Energy Development - The company has expanded its hydrogen energy layout, with successful applications domestically and internationally [4][17] - The company offers a range of hydrogen production power products from 500kW to 20MW, supporting integrated solutions for smart management of hydrogen production [4][17] Cost Control and Cash Flow - The company managed to control its period expenses, which amounted to 580 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [4][18] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -40 million yuan, a decrease of 39.2% year-on-year, while Q3 operating cash flow was 60 million yuan [4][18] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been revised down to 458 million and 564 million yuan respectively, with an expected profit of 672 million yuan in 2026 [5][24] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 19x, 15x, and 13x for the years 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, indicating a broad market potential in the downstream wind, solar, and hydrogen storage sectors [5][24]