美护投资札记之二：如何看待化妆品国产化趋势？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the cosmetics industry [2]. Core Insights - The cosmetics industry has experienced a dual growth in volume and price from 2010 to 2020, driven by the rise of e-commerce channels and consumption upgrades [7][8]. - From 2021 to 2023, the industry has shifted from channel-driven growth to product-driven growth, resulting in an overall decline in both volume and price growth [8][10]. - The report highlights a steady increase in the domestic production rate of cosmetics, with a shift from reliance on lower-tier brands to a focus on leading brands driving this change [23][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Volume and Pricing Dynamics - The cosmetics industry saw a rise in both volume and price from 2010 to 2020, primarily due to the emergence of e-commerce platforms and consumer upgrades [7]. - The growth trend shifted from volume growth outpacing price growth to price growth surpassing volume growth between 2017 and 2020 [8]. - By 2021, the industry began to experience a decline in both volume and price growth as the channel benefits diminished [10]. Industry Structure and Domestic Production Rate - The report categorizes the increase in domestic production rates into three phases: 1. 2013-2019: Driven by lower-tier brands with minimal market share changes among leading brands. 2. 2018-2020: Significant market share loss for leading domestic brands due to foreign brand competition. 3. 2021-present: Stabilization of market structure with growth in domestic production rates primarily driven by leading brands [23][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for companies that demonstrate product innovation and group consolidation capabilities within the cosmetics sector [24].