腾讯控股：游戏回暖，观察广告及支付边际变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [5] Core Views - Tencent reported a revenue of 167.2 billion RMB for Q3 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 59.8 billion RMB, a significant 33% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 54.4 billion RMB [2][4] - The gaming sector is experiencing a strong product cycle, with domestic game revenue increasing by 14% to 37.3 billion RMB, driven by titles such as "Valorant," "Honor of Kings," and "Peacekeeper Elite." International game revenue grew by 9% to 14.5 billion RMB, supported by strong performances from "PUBG MOBILE" and "Brawl Stars" [3] - The advertising revenue saw a 17% increase to 30 billion RMB, fueled by strong demand for ads on video accounts, mini-programs, and WeChat search, along with the branding boost from the Olympics [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: Gaming (51.8 billion RMB), Social Networks (30.9 billion RMB), FinTech and Enterprise Services (53.1 billion RMB), Advertising (30 billion RMB) [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 59.8 billion RMB, with significant contributions from equity method investments and a reduced effective tax rate of 14% [2][3] Business Segments - Gaming: Domestic revenue increased by 14% to 37.3 billion RMB, while international revenue grew by 9% to 14.5 billion RMB. The company expects higher international game revenue to reflect in Q4 and next year's figures [3] - FinTech and Enterprise Services: Revenue growth slowed, with payment transaction volume increasing by about 10%, but average transaction value declined [3] - Advertising: Revenue increased by 17% to 30 billion RMB, with significant growth potential in video account ads and WeChat search ads [4] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 657.3 billion RMB, 702.3 billion RMB, and 752.0 billion RMB, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit estimates are approximately 223.5 billion RMB, 243.1 billion RMB, and 266.2 billion RMB for the same period [4][8]