银行业周报：居民信贷有回暖迹象，信贷增长有望趋稳

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - There are signs of recovery in household credit, and credit growth is expected to stabilize [4][40] - Recent incremental policies are being implemented, and fiscal spending in the fourth quarter is expected to expand, promoting steady growth in credit issuance [53] - The asset quality of banks is expected to improve due to enhanced financial support for the real estate sector and increased local government bond issuance [53] Market Review - The banking index fell by 3.37%, with large banks and rural commercial banks performing better than others [4][8] - The market performance was 0.9 percentage points better than the CSI 300 index [4] - The short-term funding rates have risen, indicating a tightening of the funding environment [25] Financial Market Dynamics - The central bank's net injection in the open market was 267.1 billion yuan, with short-term funding rates increasing [25] - The issuance rate of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) has continued to decline, with net financing of NCDs increasing by 58.94 billion yuan in November [33] Industry and Company Developments - In October, the social financing balance grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with a marginal decline in growth rate [5][40] - There was a notable increase in household loans, with a year-on-year increase of 194.6 billion yuan, driven by recent policy measures [44] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has issued guidelines to broaden the scope of non-performing asset acquisitions, aiding financial institutions in revitalizing their asset base [45][52] Investment Recommendations - Focus on banks with superior asset quality and sustainable performance, as well as state-owned large banks, which still offer significant high-dividend value [53][56]