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药品行业周报:医保边际向好政策持续推出,关注筑底回升投资机会
Xiangcai Securities·2024-11-19 05:15

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The domestic pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 3.9%, ranking 18th among all primary industry sectors, slightly outperforming the Wind A-share index by 0.02 percentage points [5][12] - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with expectations for gradual recovery in the fourth quarter [30] - Recent policies indicate a positive trend, with the National Medical Insurance Administration improving the prepayment system for medical insurance funds, which is expected to alleviate financial pressures on medical institutions and support the stable operation of pharmaceutical companies [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's relative performance over the past month, three months, and twelve months shows a relative return of 1.4%, -4.3%, and -23.4% respectively, while absolute returns were 6.2%, 14.4%, and -12.1% [4] - As of November 15, the sector's PE-TTM (excluding negative values) was 27.6X, above the negative one standard deviation, and the PB was 2.6X, below the negative one standard deviation [5][12] Investment Recommendations - Two main investment strategies are recommended for the medium term: 1. Focus on the recovery of innovative drugs driven by internationalization and product strength, suggesting the selection of stocks based on clinical needs, technology platforms, and product capabilities [33] 2. Look for opportunities in the raw material drug sector, which is beginning to recover, and identify undervalued stocks benefiting from efficiency improvements due to state-owned enterprise reforms [33] - Long-term prospects indicate that the domestic innovative drug industry has established a relatively complete innovation ecosystem during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and is now entering a high-quality development phase during the 14th Five-Year Plan [33]