农林牧渔行业专题：产能恢复持续偏弱，2025年猪价获有力支撑

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The recovery of production capacity is significantly slow, with leading pig companies being the main contributors to new capacity [2] - In 2025, pig prices are expected to receive strong support, with a projected decline in breeding sow inventory in 2024 compared to 2023 [2][4] - The average asset-liability ratio of listed pig companies remains high, indicating ongoing financial pressure in the industry [2][29] Summary by Sections 1. Production Capacity Recovery - The recovery of production capacity is notably slow, with breeding sow inventory showing only slight increases in 2024 [2][26] - Major listed pig companies, such as Muyuan and Wens, are the primary contributors to the increase in breeding sow inventory [26] - The average asset-liability ratio of listed pig companies was 62% as of September 2024, reflecting high financial pressure [29] 2. Price Support in 2025 - The average breeding sow inventory in 2024 is expected to decline by approximately 4.5% compared to 2023, which will support pig prices in 2025 [4][32] - The cost of pig farming is projected to decrease in 2025, leading to an increase in net profit for leading pig companies [4] 3. Seasonal Consumption Trends - The current consumption season is anticipated to stabilize pig prices, with recent price fluctuations influenced by market dynamics [2][4] 4. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the pig farming sector, highlighting key companies such as Wens, Muyuan, and Shennong Group as investment opportunities [4]