2025年度投资策略：再通胀牛市

Policy and Market Outlook - The policy shift focuses on monetary and fiscal easing to counter debt and price deflation risks, with significant measures including a 10 trillion yuan debt resolution plan[1] - Future policy tools may include central bank rate cuts, QE expansion, and central government debt issuance, with key announcements expected at the December economic work conference and March NPC meetings[1] - The market is expected to experience financial asset reflation first, followed by real asset reflation, driven by monetary easing and fiscal stimulus[2] Market Phases and Investment Strategies - The first phase of the bull market will benefit from financial reflation, favoring small-cap growth stocks, high valuation, and high-growth sectors, particularly in TMT and military-industrial themes[3] - The second phase will see a return of value and dividend stocks, driven by economic recovery and real asset reflation, with focus on consumer staples, cyclical resources, and low-volatility dividend sectors[4] - The market is expected to be driven by incremental funds, with retail investors leveraging social media and algorithms to participate, while institutional investors focus on stable value and high-growth opportunities[5] Historical Comparisons and Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics resemble the 2014-2015 liquidity-driven asset price surge, with monetary easing preceding fiscal stimulus and real economic recovery[90] - The 1999 "519" market rally serves as a historical parallel, where financial reflation smoothly transitioned to real asset reflation, leading to a strong economic rebound[100] Market Valuation and Upside Potential - Institutional investors see limited upside (5% neutral, 27% optimistic) based on PE-EPS models, while retail investors perceive stocks as undervalued relative to excess savings and M2 growth[114] - Potential market upside includes a 9% neutral and 21% optimistic scenario from excess savings entering the stock market, and a 3% neutral and 8% optimistic scenario from M2-driven price effects[118][128]