轻工2025年度策略：复苏进行时，把握确定性

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the light industry sector, indicating potential investment opportunities amidst challenges [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing sector presents both opportunities and challenges in 2025, with recommendations to focus on three main lines for investment: adapting to the new normal, embracing new trends, and selecting quality targets [2][3]. - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of the real estate market, with soft furnishings outperforming custom options, and the trend towards integrated home solutions gaining traction [5][6]. - The export chain is anticipated to improve due to expected interest rate cuts and inventory replenishment, with a focus on companies with strong overseas operations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to recover as the real estate market stabilizes, with a focus on soft furnishings over custom options and the integration of home solutions [5][6]. - Key statistics indicate that from January to October 2024, residential sales, new construction, and completion areas decreased by 17.7%, 22.7%, and 23.4% year-on-year, respectively, highlighting the need for improvement in real estate data [46]. - Recommended leading companies include Gujia Home and Oppein Home, which are expected to leverage their competitive advantages to gain market share [5][6]. Export Chain - The report highlights that the export chain is poised for improvement due to anticipated interest rate cuts and a replenishment cycle in the home furnishing sector [5][6]. - Companies such as Lega Technology, Yongyi Co., and Henglin Co. are recommended for their strong overseas sales capabilities and management excellence [5][6]. Paper & Packaging - The paper sector is expected to see improved profitability as the peak season approaches, with a focus on price increases and demand recovery [78]. - Recommended companies in the paper sector include Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and market expansion [78]. New Tobacco Products - The new tobacco sector is projected to experience upward momentum as regulatory environments tighten, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, benefiting compliant companies like Smoore International [100]. - The domestic market is expected to improve gradually as policy risks diminish and sales conditions enhance [100].