房地产行业2025年度投资策略报告会：产能牛耳已执，价值重升可期

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong recommendation for large-cap stocks, particularly those with low valuations and potential for mergers and acquisitions [87] Core Views - The real estate market is expected to enter a bottoming phase by 2025, with potential for stabilization and recovery as policy effects materialize [3][64] - The industry is shifting from credit protection to value protection, emphasizing asset activation and long-term profitability [72][73][74] - A bull market is anticipated to eliminate low valuations, with a focus on the transition from negative to positive feedback loops [82][83] Dollar Tide Mechanism - The dollar tide mechanism highlights the relationship between US monetary policy and global capital flows, particularly impacting emerging markets and asset prices [5][7] - China's real estate policy cycles have historically aligned with US interest rate changes, with 2020 being the first instance of simultaneous domestic real estate regulation and US rate hikes [11][12] - The current dollar devaluation cycle is expected to benefit Chinese assets, including the real estate market, due to global supply chain demand and the RMB settlement system [8][9] Domestic Real Estate Policy Cycle - The 2023 Politburo meeting marked a shift towards more supportive policies for real estate, with a focus on stabilizing the market and reducing inventory [16][17] - Compared to the 2014 cycle, the current market faces challenges due to varying population cycles and debt levels across cities, making synchronized recovery difficult [28][29] - However, the current market benefits from significant capacity reduction, with new construction and real estate investment at historically low levels, leading to a potential decline in future supply [32][33][34][36] - Land supply has also contracted significantly, with a 22.56% year-on-year decline in land transaction area and a 34.66% decline in transaction value in 2024 [37][39] - Housing prices have adjusted, with first-tier cities seeing a 12.92% decline from their peak and key second-tier cities experiencing a 20.47% decline [41][42][43][44] - Sales volume has also seen a significant adjustment, with a projected 48.38% decline in sales area and a 50.45% decline in sales value from 2021 levels [46][47][48][49] Future Housing Demand - Future housing demand is expected to be driven by urbanization, household registration, and improvement needs, with a projected decline in total demand from 19.70 billion square meters in 2024 to 8.49 billion square meters by 2043 [51][52][53][55] Real Estate Market Bottoming - Inventory pressure has increased, with a 34.52-month inventory clearance cycle in 23 representative cities as of October 2024, indicating a potential bottoming phase [56][57][58] - Sales in 44 key cities have shown a bottoming trend, with a projected narrowing of year-on-year sales growth by 2025 [59][60][61][62] - Developers are expected to go through a cycle of reducing inventory before replenishing it, with investment growth likely to follow sales growth by 1-2 quarters [67][68][69][70] Corporate Strategy Shift - The real estate industry's contribution to GDP has declined, with a shift towards a new growth model focusing on value protection and long-term profitability [72][73][74] - The industry will focus on asset activation, with companies adopting strategies for large-scale mergers, stable growth, and optimized business structures [79][80][81] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large-cap stocks with low valuations and potential for mergers and acquisitions, including companies like China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group [87]