10月财政数据点评：大省时隔一年重回预算外扩张

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In October, broad fiscal revenue increased by 2.4% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 1.5% in September[1] - Broad fiscal expenditure rose by 20.4% year-on-year in October, up from 12.6% in September[1] - The significant increase in expenditure reflects a recovery in local government activity and the impact of special bonds[1] Group 2: Local Government Credit Expansion - The return to budgetary expansion in major provinces indicates enhanced local government initiative, with six major provinces contributing 45% of national GDP and over half of land sales revenue[1] - In October, major provincial state-owned enterprises (SOEs) resumed expansion, marking the first positive net financing for city investment and non-city investment SOEs since September 2023[1] - The focus on major provinces for credit expansion is driven by a shift in debt management policies, with major provinces receiving a larger share of special refinancing bonds[1] Group 3: Debt Management and Policy Shifts - From January to October 2023, major provinces accounted for 66% of the newly issued special refinancing bonds, while heavily indebted provinces only received 15%[1] - The policy shift emphasizes balancing risk prevention with development promotion, particularly in major provinces[1] - The expected debt management framework will continue to favor major provinces through 2026, with a total of 6 trillion yuan allocated for debt management over the next three years[1] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - Tax revenue in October showed a positive growth of 1.8%, reversing a decline of 5% in September, while non-tax revenue surged by 39.6%[1] - The increase in tax revenue was primarily driven by corporate income tax, which contributed 1.6 percentage points to the overall tax growth[1] - Government fund income growth slowed to -10% in October, with land sale income decreasing by 10.5% compared to a 18.8% decline in September[1]