韵达股份：把握快递小件化趋势，以价换量降成本保利润

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company is capitalizing on the trend of small parcel delivery, implementing cost reduction strategies to maintain profitability. The company's express delivery volume growth outpaces the industry average, and it is effectively lowering costs while enhancing profit margins [2][3]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.257 billion RMB, an increase of 8.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 367 million RMB, up 24.25% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 35.509 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.408 billion RMB, a 20.93% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total express delivery volume of 16.943 billion pieces in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 5.7 percentage points. In Q3 2024 alone, the volume was 6.019 billion pieces, up 23.72% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average revenue per piece for Q1-Q3 2024 was 2.10 RMB, down 15.32% year-on-year, indicating a successful strategy of price reduction to increase volume. The average cost per piece was 1.89 RMB, down 15.06% year-on-year, showcasing effective cost management [2][3]. Digitalization and Innovation - The company is enhancing its digital capabilities and actively exploring the low-altitude economy. It has implemented a comprehensive digital strategy to improve operational efficiency and service quality, including the introduction of new intelligent sorting equipment [2][3]. - The company is conducting pilot projects for drone deliveries in certain regions, aiming to shorten delivery times and improve service efficiency [2][3]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to a significant reduction in average revenue per piece, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.075 billion RMB, 2.405 billion RMB, and 2.857 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.7%, 15.9%, and 18.8% respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.72 RMB, 0.83 RMB, and 0.99 RMB per share, with PE ratios of 11.3, 9.8, and 8.2 times [2][3].