商贸零售行业：10月社零增长提速，受益于双十一提前和政策刺激

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained by Dongxing Securities [4][17]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sector is experiencing a rebound in consumer demand, with a notable increase in social retail sales in September and October 2024, driven by the early Double Eleven promotions and policy stimuli [29][30]. - Essential consumption categories are showing steady growth, while some discretionary categories are experiencing varied performance, indicating a shift towards high cost-performance consumption [12][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a growth acceleration of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [6][10]. - The retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 36,573 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% [7]. Consumer Behavior - Essential consumption categories such as food, beverages, and daily necessities showed robust growth rates of 9.9%, 4.5%, and 2.2% respectively in the first half of 2024 [12]. - Discretionary consumption categories like sports and entertainment products and communication equipment performed well, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7% and 10% respectively, while categories like automobiles and cosmetics faced negative growth [12][16]. Online vs. Offline Sales - Online retail sales in the first nine months of 2024 reached 108,928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 7.9% [12]. - The proportion of online retail sales in total retail sales rose to 25.7%, indicating a continued trend towards online shopping [12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-performing segments within the retail sector and companies that can cater to the demand for high cost-performance products, especially in the context of overall weak consumer demand [17][30].