国君轻工|新标准全面推进,格局加速优化——电动两轮车行业

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the electric two-wheeler industry is experiencing accelerated differentiation in terminal sales, with leading brands benefiting significantly [1]. Core Insights - The new 3C certification standards, effective from November 1, 2024, are expected to improve the supply landscape, as leading manufacturers have sufficient SKU reserves, while smaller brands are struggling to meet certification requirements [1]. - The upcoming national standard is anticipated to enhance average selling prices (ASP) and increase market concentration by requiring manufacturers to reduce plastic components and increase metal parts, alongside the introduction of smart features [2]. - The "old-for-new" policy is primarily supporting lead-acid products, with subsidies ranging from 10% to 20% of the selling price, potentially leading to significant consumer incentives [3]. Summary by Sections 3C Certification - The new certification includes safety standards for lithium-ion batteries, chargers, and electrical safety, which must be met for products to be sold or imported [1]. - Leading brands like Aima and Yadea have completed over 100 model certifications, leading to improved terminal sales and a shift in dealer preferences towards these brands [1]. New National Standards - The new standards are expected to be officially released by the end of 2024, which will likely increase production costs and require brands to enhance their technological capabilities [2]. - The transition from OEM to OBM production models is anticipated, which will phase out smaller brands lacking quality control capabilities [2]. Old-for-New Policy - The policy is gradually being implemented nationwide, with subsidies typically between 400-600 yuan, and additional incentives for recycling lithium battery products [3]. - In Shanghai, the total subsidy for mainstream brands could reach 20%-30%, indicating strong support for the transition to new standards [3].