农林牧渔行业2025年度策略：周期与成长共舞

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability due to improved feed costs and a favorable supply-demand balance in the pig farming sector, particularly as the market enters a peak demand period towards the end of 2024 [5][46]. - The pet food sector shows significant growth potential driven by changing demographics and rising living standards, with a notable shift towards domestic brands [5][21]. - The animal health sector is poised for growth due to the introduction of new vaccines and increasing demand from large-scale farming operations [5][54]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a return of -0.61% from early 2024 to November 18, 2024, ranking 27th among 30 sectors [4][19]. - The pet food segment has shown strong performance, while the animal health segment has lagged behind [21]. Pig Farming - The pig farming sector is entering a phase of supply expansion, with expectations of strong price performance leading into the end of 2024, followed by a potential decline in 2025 due to seasonal demand fluctuations [5][46]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the market share of leading pig farming companies, with the top eight firms' market share rising from 4.59% in 2017 to 18.35% in 2023 [46][59]. Animal Health - The animal health market has been growing steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% from 2016 to 2023, driven by increased focus on animal health products in large-scale farming [54][56]. - The introduction of new vaccines, particularly for African swine fever, is expected to open new market opportunities [57]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is positioned for growth as regulatory frameworks and policies supporting biotechnology become clearer, with significant investment potential in the sector [5][54]. Pet Food - The pet food market in China is projected to continue expanding, with a shift towards online sales and domestic product replacements, indicating substantial growth opportunities for related companies [5][21].