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2025年行业投资策略:新技术周期展开,重视产业增量和国产替代机遇
财通证券·2024-11-19 08:23

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a Positive rating for the electronics industry [3] Core Views - AI is driving a new technology cycle in the global electronics industry, with GPU and HBM being the core growth drivers in the semiconductor sector [7] - AI computing demand is rapidly increasing, with significant growth expected in GPU, switches, optical modules, and PCB sectors [8] - AI terminals, particularly in consumer electronics like smartphones, PCs, and wearables, are expected to be the most promising direction in the next three years [9] - Domestic substitution opportunities in advanced processes, packaging, AI computing chips, and high-speed switch chips are critical for China's semiconductor industry [9] AI-Driven Industry Growth - The global semiconductor industry has been recovering since February 2023, driven by AI, with GPU and HBM as the primary growth drivers [7] - The global data center market is projected to reach 284.4billionby2028,withaCAGRof24.9284.4 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 24.9% from 2023 to 2028 [7] - The HBM market is expected to reach 16.9 billion in 2024, accounting for 20% of the global DRAM market [7] - AI chip market is forecasted to grow to 500billionby2028,withaCAGRexceeding60500 billion by 2028, with a CAGR exceeding 60% from 2023 to 2028 [8] AI Terminal Opportunities - AI applications in consumer electronics, such as smartphones, PCs, and wearables, are expected to drive significant growth [9] - Meta Reality Labs reported a 29% YoY revenue increase in Q3 2024, driven by Quest 3 and Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses [9] - Traditional terminals are expected to see steady growth with AI integration, while emerging terminals are likely to offer the highest growth potential [9] Domestic Substitution in Semiconductors - China's semiconductor industry is focusing on domestic substitution in advanced processes, packaging, and AI computing chips [9] - The report highlights opportunities in semiconductor equipment, materials, and components, with domestic companies expected to benefit from the growth in AI computing chips and advanced packaging [9] Consumer Electronics Market Recovery - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, a 4.4% YoY increase, driven by AI integration in devices [106] - PC market recovery is expected, with enterprise demand driving growth ahead of Windows 10 service termination in 2025 [108] - TWS headset market is shifting towards OWS (Open Wearable Stereo) products, with 50% of the market now in the sub-50 price segment [112] AI Integration in Consumer Devices - Apple's iOS 18 introduces AI features like Apple Intelligence, enabling on-device AI tasks such as photo optimization, text summarization, and voice transcription [117] - Android manufacturers like Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo are integrating AI into their devices, with features like AI-powered photo editing, voice assistants, and productivity tools [121][122][123]