大豆——预期中的交易：2018年中美贸易摩擦复盘

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The report reviews the soybean industry during the US-China trade tensions, highlighting the fluctuations in futures prices, import costs, and volumes at key events [4][5] - It anticipates that the current global oversupply of soybeans and China's ample supply will allow for a more relaxed approach to potential future trade disputes [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of advancing seed industry revitalization actions and the commercialization of genetically modified crops as key investment themes [7][59] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Trump Era Trade Tensions - The report analyzes the impact of tariff announcements on soybean prices and import costs, noting significant price drops following the implementation of tariffs [4][5] - It details the timeline of trade actions, including the imposition of a 25% tariff on US soybeans by China, which led to a drastic reduction in imports from the US [17][20] 2. Outlook for Trump 2.0 - The report suggests that Trump's potential re-election may lead to continued protectionist policies, increasing uncertainty in international trade and potentially causing significant price volatility in agricultural commodities [6][43] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies key companies in the seed industry, such as "Qianyuan High-Tech," "Longping High-Tech," and "Dabeinong," as potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of advancing biotechnology [7][59] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - It notes that in October 2023, China imported 8.09 million tons of soybeans, a 57% increase from the previous year, indicating a robust demand despite global supply challenges [53] - The report highlights that China's reliance on Brazilian soybeans has increased significantly, with the share of US soybeans in China's imports dropping from 41% in 2016 to 24% in 2023 [59]