家电行业2025年度投资策略：内外双韧，补贴出口延续下的白银一年

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the home appliance sector, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The year 2024 is projected to be a golden year for the home appliance sector, with a focus on effective growth driven by continued subsidies for old-for-new exchanges and adjustments in the export chain [2][5]. - The home appliance sector has shown a significant increase of 25.0% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.0 percentage points, driven by high industry prosperity due to policy support and a market preference for defensive strategies [2][76]. - The report discusses the potential for continued subsidies, estimating that if subsidies persist, the annualized subsidy amount could reach 80 billion, leading to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% for domestic home appliance retail sales from 2023 to 2026 [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2024 Sector Performance - The home appliance sector has been a top performer, with a year-to-date increase of 25.0%, making it the leading sector in consumer goods [76]. - The sector's strong performance is attributed to policy-driven high prosperity and the defensive attributes of leading companies, which have maintained stable earnings amidst weaker macro consumption [76][88]. 2. Policy Subsidy Discussion - The report outlines the stages of the current subsidy cycle, comparing it to the 2009 subsidy patterns, which include valuation, industry verification, and financial report verification phases [2][106]. - The expectation of continued subsidies is supported by recent government signals, with a potential retail sales boost of 421.1 billion from a 40 billion subsidy in the second half of 2024 [2][6]. 3. Overseas Market Insights - The report highlights that home appliance exports have shown a significant increase of 12.3% in the first half of 2024, with emerging markets contributing the most to this growth [2][6]. - Concerns regarding tariffs and trade relations with the U.S. are addressed, emphasizing the resilience of the Chinese home appliance industry, which is expected to maintain a mid-term growth rate of 5-8% in exports [2][6]. 4. Tool Industry and Electric Two-Wheelers - The report notes that the U.S. real estate market recovery is expected to drive demand for tools, as they are considered a post-cycle product [7]. - For electric two-wheelers, the report anticipates a recovery in demand due to the removal of policy disruptions and low growth bases, with expectations for profit recovery among leading brands in 2025 [7].