Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Short-term replenishment willingness across various segments is strong, and with demand uplift, prices are expected to rebound [3][4] - Thermal coal prices are experiencing overall fluctuations, with a positive outlook for thermal coal due to increased demand during the winter heating peak [4][46] - Coking coal prices are currently underperforming, and future performance will depend on policy implementation in related sectors such as real estate and infrastructure [4][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal industry performed moderately, ranking in the middle among 31 industries, with a weekly decline of 3.45% [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.52%, indicating a broader market downturn affecting coal stocks [7] Thermal Coal - Strong replenishment willingness is observed, with terminal power plants increasing daily consumption of thermal coal [4][9] - The average daily inventory of thermal coal at northern ports reached a record high of 27.5863 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2613 million tons [11] - Prices for thermal coal at various production sites showed mixed trends, with Inner Mongolia's price at 656 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [9][11] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices remain low, with the average price for various types around 810 CNY/ton for Shanxi Gujiao No. 2 coking coal, unchanged from the previous week but down 630 CNY/ton year-on-year [23] - The average daily inventory of coking coal at major ports is at 4.4621 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 238.95 thousand tons [25][27] Shipping Situation - Shipping capacity has rebounded slightly, with an average of 56 vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports, up by 8 vessels week-on-week [34] - Freight rates have generally decreased, influenced by low market demand [34] Industry News - The new Energy Law will take effect on January 1, 2025, establishing a legal foundation for the energy sector [40] - A total of 36 listed coal companies have released their Q3 performance forecasts, with 27 expecting profit increases [40]
煤炭行业周报:动力煤需求有所提振,板块短期市场有利因素叠加
Datong Securities·2024-11-19 10:02