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对上海取消普通住房和非普通住房标准的点评:一线的排头兵,上海率先响应普宅标准取消
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-19 10:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [8]. Core Insights - On November 18, the Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Administration and other departments jointly issued a notice to cancel the standards for ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing, which is expected to boost market transactions [9]. - The new policy includes tax adjustments: the personal income tax rate for transferring non-ordinary housing is reduced from 2% to 1%, and the value-added tax for selling housing held for over two years is exempted [9]. - The cancellation of the ordinary housing standard is anticipated to lower transaction costs effectively, enhancing market activity [9]. - The report notes a shift in policy approach, with new measures being implemented even before signs of market cooling, focusing on improving demand through tax burden reduction [9]. - Following Shanghai's lead, Beijing has also canceled the ordinary housing standard, with expectations that other first-tier cities will follow suit [9]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The cancellation of the ordinary housing standard and related tax adjustments are set to take effect on December 1 [9]. - The new tax policies are designed to lower costs for both buyers and sellers, potentially increasing transaction volumes [9]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the real estate sector is entering a new phase, with asset restructuring and integration expected to become focal points [9]. - It anticipates a potential acceleration in domestic debt restructuring as part of risk mitigation strategies [9]. - The report highlights the importance of resource integration, particularly in first-tier cities, where state-owned enterprises may gain advantages [9]. Company Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, all rated as "Overweight" [12]. - Specific companies mentioned include Vanke A, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios provided for 2023A, 2024E, and 2025E [12].