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煤炭行业周报:电厂日耗加速释放,动力煤价格有望止跌
Xiangcai Securities·2024-11-19 10:13

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][8][121] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has experienced a decline of 3.5% recently, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.2 percentage points. The current PE valuation for the coal sector is 11.8 times, at the 62.9 percentile of the past decade, while the PB valuation is 1.4 times, at the 45.3 percentile [5][6] - Domestic power coal prices have decreased, while international prices remain stable. As of November 18, the market price for Qinhuangdao Q5500 power coal is 850 RMB/ton, down 1.16% week-on-week. The demand for power coal is expected to increase as the heating season begins, with a notable rise in daily consumption from power plants [6][8] - The focus on thermal coal is expected to strengthen as winter approaches, with a decrease in hydropower output and renewable energy not fully meeting the increased winter electricity demand. This suggests that thermal power demand may perform better than in the third quarter [6][8] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector's performance has been negative, with a 3.5% decline compared to a 3.3% drop in the CSI 300 index. The sector's PE and PB valuations have also decreased week-on-week [5][6] Coal Market Tracking - Domestic and international power coal prices have shown a mixed trend, with domestic prices declining slightly while international prices remain stable. The supply of power coal is tightening due to safety inspections, and daily consumption from power plants is increasing, indicating a potential recovery in demand [6][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments in the thermal coal sector, as the market is expected to transition from a low-demand season to a peak demand season, leading to a potential price increase for thermal coal [8][121]