保险行业2025年度投资策略：资产为矛，负债为盾

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the insurance industry, emphasizing the importance of both asset and liability management [1] Core Views - The insurance sector has experienced three significant trend-driven market movements in 2024, with the third being the most pronounced due to performance expectations and investment-driven beta effects [1] - The current valuation of the insurance sector is at a three-year high, but there is still room for growth from a 5/10-year perspective [1] - The reform of the agent force has stabilized among leading life insurance companies, with improved agent quality expected to drive productivity [1] - Under the new accounting standards, investment performance has become a decisive factor, with equity market volatility significantly impacting profit statements due to increased FVTPL assets [1] - The new business value (NBV) is expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by improved new business value margins, despite high base effects [1] - The property insurance sector may see a recovery in 2025, driven by normalized agricultural insurance and continued growth in new energy vehicle insurance [1] Investment Strategy - For 2024, investment performance is expected to continue contributing to earnings growth, while life insurance is projected to maintain high NBV growth [1] - Long-term growth opportunities are seen in companies with strong asset management capabilities and those building product barriers [1] - Short-term focus is recommended on high-beta stocks if the equity market rebounds, and on Ping An if real estate policies are validated [1] - Long-term recommendations include China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) for its alpha effects from liability-side reforms and China Life for its stable strategy and lower cost pressures [1] - The property insurance sector is viewed positively, with a focus on the deepening moats of leading companies like China P&C [1] Sector Performance Review - The insurance sector has seen three major trend-driven movements in 2024, with the third being the most significant due to performance expectations and investment-driven beta effects [35] - The sector's valuation is at a three-year high, but there is still room for growth from a 5/10-year perspective [37] - The reform of the agent force has stabilized among leading life insurance companies, with improved agent quality expected to drive productivity [37] Investment Performance Under New Standards - Under the new accounting standards, investment performance has become a decisive factor, with equity market volatility significantly impacting profit statements due to increased FVTPL assets [40] - In Q1-3 2024, the net profit growth of listed insurers improved significantly, driven by equity market recovery and low base effects [41] - Over 80% of the net profit changes in listed insurers came from investment performance, with significant contributions from fair value changes [42] Liability-Side Outlook for 2025 - The new business value (NBV) is expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by improved new business value margins, despite high base effects [18] - Cost reduction remains a key focus, with potential adjustments to pricing rates and ongoing optimization of expense margins [80] - Dividend insurance is expected to play a more significant role in the product structure, helping to alleviate rigid cost pressures [82] Property Insurance Sector Outlook - The property insurance sector may see a recovery in 2025, driven by normalized agricultural insurance and continued growth in new energy vehicle insurance [22] - The combined ratio (COR) management is expected to improve, with leading insurers actively building risk reduction service systems [24] Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on China Pacific Insurance (CPIC), Ping An, New China Life, and China Life, with attention also on China P&C H, PICC Group H, and PICC A [103]